Return to office rates at certain Manhattan towers hit 78% earlier this month, JPMorgan said, significantly higher than even the most robust figures prepared by others.
“The rate is trending upwards,” said analysts at the global bank, whose $140 billion in commercial real estate loans make up a tenth of its portfolio. “Regardless of the workday, the rate at which workers commute into the office has shown improvement since 2022.”
JPMorgan tracked return rates at two dozen large office buildings in Midtown and the Financial District, including 280 Park Ave., 1211 Sixth Ave., 787 Seventh Ave., 10 Hudson Yards, and 225 Liberty St. The bank measured return rates by tracking cell phone usage, the same approach used by the Real Estate Board of New York, which estimates office visitation rates in January were 60%. Kastle Systems data showed only 45% of New York metro workers returned to office in early March.
The differences in the data reflect how the various office-return measurers are measuring different things.
JPMorgan’s figures come from tracking phone usage at 24 Class A buildings, the sort filled with financial institutions, law firms and other employers who demand workers come to the office many or most days. REBNY’s data is gathered from phone usage at 350 Manhattan buildings representing nearly 50% of the office stock. And Kastle’s measures identification-card swipes in 276 New York-area buildings, including 204 in Manhattan.
Data experts say cell phone usage produces noiser data than Kastle’s, because it can capture data from visitors who might not work in a building, such as tourists at a ground-floor restaurant. JPMorgan, however, said it filtered data for visits of at least two and a half hours. The bank analysts added their data “compares favorably” with ridership levels on the Long Island Rail Road and MetroNorth.
JPMorgan said offices near Times Square have consistently outperformed, with return rates of 88%, while the Grand Central and Garment District neighborhoods have lagged behind over the years. Analysts found the Grand Central data surprising in light of how close the buildings are to a major commuter hub. However, in recent months the gap between Grand Central and Times Square has started to close.
Aaron Elstein , 2024-03-20 18:54:50
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